So... Where Does Europe Go From Here?

Image courtesy of Bro-n0 on Pixabay, https://pixabay.com/photos/flags-europe-eu-flag-european-1615129/

Alasdair Wilson explores Europe's options as the continent hunts for strategic autonomy in the age of disorder.

From harmful tariffs to the threatened annexation of Greenland, the Trump administration has seemed desperate to cleave the Western world in two along the Atlantic ridge. 

French President Macron has long been an advocate of European “strategic autonomy”, but he is no longer the only voice in the choir. Many senior European figures are now calling for a shake-up. Everyone agrees that something must change, but (in true EU-style) no one can seem to agree on how to do anything.  

This has left the old continent scrambling for the answer to one question in particular:

Where, exactly, does Europe go from here?

Global Europe

The EU’s “Made in Europe” proposal joins plans for greater borrowing powers at the EU level. This is reminiscent of the first steps taken by Germany and the US to more centralisation and federation. Both were nations born from independent states, but power centralised in the federal government with streamlined financial powers.  

This ambition was explicitly stated by French President Macron when he called for Europe to “start acting like a ‘power’”. In his statement, he called for “shared debt capacity” and “eurobonds” to protect Europe’s “finance, defence, and security, and in our democratic systems”. 

Further, German Chancellor Merz has called for “independence” from the US, and Europe recently overtook the US as Ukraine’s largest military backer. Europe has flexed its muscles, rejecting involvement in the US and Israel’s war on Iran, ignoring President Trump’s request to ensure safe passage for ships through the strait of Hormuz until “the fighting stops”, as stressed by Merz. 

Additionally, discussions of streamlining the EU Commission Presidency and the EU Council Presidency into a single role are reportedly ongoing. And the EU seems to be preparing its pockets for the big shift, too. In 2019, the EU issued around €50 billion in joint debt for the occasional lending programme. By January 2026, this had taken the EU’s joint debt burden close to €1 trillion. 

Global Europe is being treated like a probability in EU circles. But how does Europe get there?

Expansion – A Shield, or a Sphere of Influence?

Spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a handful of Eastern European nations including Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine have sought membership of the EU. They join Balkan countries like Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia who have waited for over a decade for membership. The election victory of pro-EU parties in Iceland’s 2024 election saw the government propose a fast-tracked EU membership referendum in August 2026, with possible membership in 2028.  

But difficulty persists; Europe demands strict and extensive membership requirements. Applicant countries today often wait decades to join. Moreover, agreements between the better part of two dozen governments are required for most policies, and unanimity among all 27 leaders for others. This is what Macron’s (in)famous line that Europe “sometimes is too slow, for sure, and needs to be reformed, for sure” refers to. 

As a result, some, like President Macron, have proposed a Europe of multiple tiers. 

You can imagine this proposal as multiple rings. At the centre are nations committed to European integration and the European project – possibly a fast-track to EU federalism and further expansion. And fanning out from this centre are other nations whose leaders are potentially uncomfortable with a centralised European authority. 

This solution has been proposed to grant Ukraine half-membership of the EU – without access to certain voting rights – or as a means of the UK maintaining ties with the EU without rejoining. However, Ukrainian President Zelensky has criticised this plan, preferring full membership for Ukraine as soon as possible. Further, necessary reforms like the EU’s high voting thresholds have not yet developed. Certain issues, like common foreign and security policy, require unanimity amongst all 27 national leaders, which gives vetoes to obstructionist players such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban.  

Federation

Political scientists have long argued that the EU sits somewhere between a multi-state federation (like India or the US) and your run-of-the-mill international organisation (like the UN or NATO). The EU Parliament can pass binding laws on member states, but with grumblings about constitutionality from member state supreme courts). The existence of a European Court of Justice, a Commission President, and seats at the UN and G7 would suggest that the EU acts like a true nation state. However, lacking an EU Constitution, the ability to raise direct taxes, and (occasionally) clear legal supremacy over its member states, the EU is still technically a voluntary collection of autonomous nations. 

Some have called to end this ambiguity. Mario Draghi (formerly the Italian Prime Minister and European Central Bank President) is a senior voice on this bench, but he is not alone. Germany’s coalition agreement in 2021 called for federation to be the goal of Germany’s relationship with the EU. 

Moreover, every step towards any further integration is also a step towards federation – a fact many European leaders will certainly be mulling over.

So, how could the EU become a true federation? Likely, it would require significant amendment to EU treaties, the establishment of an EU Constitution, large-scale revamping of EU institutions, and (likely) complete unanimity between all 27 European leaders. 

However, certain steps have already taken place. All member states already recognise the “primacy” of EU law in certain specific areas in their national constitutions. Additionally, the existence of a supranational European Parliament – a staple of EU democracy – has become a normalised part of the EU bureaucracy. 

From the war in Iran to transatlantic splits, every major global incident thus far seems to be pushing Europe closer to integration. The organisation is forced to stand on its own two feet for the first time in its history. And yet, for its first baby steps, the EU seems to be (slowly) transitioning to a global power relatively successfully. 

Federalism is unlikely to be implemented any time soon. And yet, less of a dirty word and more of an open secret, the current global turmoil looks set to ‘integrate’ Europe further.